Arvidsjaur
Source: Live Arvidsjaur (YouTube) · YouTube embed
Poland: the aurora is easiest to see in the north, e.g. Łeba, where a Kp of about 5.5 is enough. In the south, e.g. Zakopane, you need a Kp of about 8. Below you have the aurora oval map, the 3-day Kp forecast and live chances for 14 cities.
Source: NOAA SWPC · GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences · Updated: -
| Night | Highest Kp | NOAA scale | Chance here |
|---|---|---|---|
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Colour shows the probability of aurora overhead from the NOAA OVATION model for the next 30-90 minutes. The darker side of the globe is night: only there can the aurora be seen.
The higher the Kp, the farther from the pole the aurora can be seen. From Kp 5 NOAA calls it a geomagnetic storm (scale G1-G5). The last column lists cities where the aurora may appear low on the horizon at that Kp (our approximate model).
| Kp | NOAA scale | What it means | Where it may be visible |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | - | quiet | Edinburgh, Oslo, Tromsø, Rovaniemi, Reykjavík, Fairbanks |
| 4 | - | quiet | Stockholm, Helsinki, Tallinn, Dublin, Calgary |
| 5 | G1 | minor storm | Copenhagen, Riga, Vancouver, Montreal |
| 6 | G2 | moderate storm | London, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot, Łeba, Hel |
| 7 | G3 | strong storm | Białystok, Poznań, Warsaw, Wrocław, Paris, Chicago |
| 8 | G4 | severe storm | Kraków, Zakopane, Munich, Prague, New York, Hobart |
| 9 | G5 | extreme storm | Vienna, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, Milan, Melbourne |
Cameras pointed at the sky in Lapland, Iceland, Canada and Alaska. The aurora shows only at night, under clear skies.
Source: Live Arvidsjaur (YouTube) · YouTube embed
Source: City of Rovaniemi (YouTube) · YouTube embed
Source: Starlapland / Samuli Korvanen (YouTube) · YouTube embed
During stronger geomagnetic storms. In the north, e.g. Łeba, a Kp of about 5.5 is enough, while in the south, e.g. Zakopane, you need about 8. Strong storms are most common around the equinoxes, in March and September.
In the north of the country, away from city lights and with a clear view of the northern horizon. The darker, the better.
Check the Kp forecast on this page. If it goes above the value needed for your city at night and the sky is clear, you have a chance. A phone photo in night mode often shows the aurora better than your eyes.
How we estimate the chance: we compare NOAA's Kp forecast with an approximate aurora visibility boundary for the city's geomagnetic latitude. It is an estimate, not a guarantee - clouds and light pollution also decide whether you will see it.